Will fuel prices go up in 2026? What to expect
24 March 2026
After a period of relative stability, UK fuel prices face several pressures in 2026. From scheduled fuel duty increases to unpredictable global oil markets, here's what drivers should be prepared for.
The fuel duty factor
The biggest confirmed change is the phased unwinding of the 5p fuel duty cut. From September 2026, duty will increase by 1p, followed by 2p in December and another 2p in March 2027. By spring 2027, drivers will be paying the full 5p more per litre than today — adding roughly £2.50 to a typical 50-litre fill-up.
Global oil prices
Crude oil is the biggest variable in fuel pricing. Brent crude prices are influenced by OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions, global economic growth, and the pace of the energy transition. A significant oil price spike — similar to what happened in 2022 — could push pump prices up far more than any duty increase.
The exchange rate
Oil is traded in US dollars, so the pound-to-dollar exchange rate affects UK fuel prices. A weaker pound means more expensive oil imports, which eventually reaches the pump. Post-budget economic conditions and global trade dynamics will influence this.
What drivers can control
You can't control global oil prices or government tax policy, but you can:
- Shop around — use PumpSaver to find the cheapest station near you. The savings easily outweigh any duty increase.
- Monitor trends — our price trends chart shows whether prices are moving up or down, helping you decide whether to fill up now or wait.
- Choose supermarkets — the 3-4p saving at supermarket forecourts more than offsets the September duty rise.
- Consider your fuel type — if your car runs on E10, don't pay the E5 premium unnecessarily.